Country Area - 390,580 km²
Range Area - 81,228 km² (21%)
Protected Range - 61%
Information Quality Index (IQI) - 0.86
CITES Appendix - II
Listing Year - 1997
Poaching of elephants for ivory has escalated in the past ten years and has become a major problem in Zimbabwe. A worrying recent development has been the emergence of poisoning as a poaching technique. Just over 100 elephants were killed in a single cyanide poisoning incident in Hwange National Park in late 2013 (Muboko et al., 2014). The impact of poaching has been highest in the north of the country, particularly in the Sebungwe Region to the south of Lake Kariba, and the Lower Zambezi Region (Dunham et al., 2015c). Although elephant numbers have increased in Gonarezhou National Park, it too experienced an increase in poaching in 2015 (Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015).
Concern has been expressed about the impact of high numbers of elephants on vegetation and other biodiversity in Zimbabwe’s protected areas. Despite the increase in poaching, this remains a problem in protected areas such as Hwange NP, where the provision of artificial water supplies has led to high elephant densities (ZPWMA, 2015).
Zimbabwe published a national elephant management plan covering the period 2015 to 2020 (ZPWMA, 2015).
In 2008, Zimbabwe undertook an approved one-off sale of 3,764 kg of ivory to Japan and China, at a price of USD $487,162 (Wijnstekers, 2011).
Zimbabwe’s annual declared export quota of elephant trophies remains unchanged since 2007 at 1,000 (tusks as hunting trophies from 500 animals) (CITES, n.d.-b). In 2015, the US Fish and Wildlife Service removed its ‘non-detriment’ finding, thus banning the import of elephant trophies into the USA (USFWS, 2015a).
The estimated number of elephants in areas surveyed in the last ten years in Zimbabwe is 82,630 ± 8,589 at the time of the last survey for each area. There may be an additional 1,635 to 1,805 elephants in areas not systematically surveyed. These guesses likely represent a minimum number, and actual numbers could be higher than those reported. Together, this estimate and guess apply to 78,839 km², which is 97% of the estimated known and possible elephant range. There remains an additional 3% of the estimated range for which no elephant population estimates are available.
There has been a decline of just over 10,000 elephants from surveyed populations since the AESR 2007 and an increase of about 1,000 in guesses, mostly from previously unsurveyed areas in North West Matabeleland. Although there have been large losses from the Sebungwe and Lower Zambezi populations, these have been partially compensated by increases in Gonarezhou and North West Matabeland.
The major populations of the Lower Zambezi Valley (including Mana Pools National Park), Sebungwe (including Matusadona and Chizarira National Parks), North-west Matabeleland (including Hwange and Zambezi National Parks) and the south-east Lowveld (including Gonarezhou NP) were surveyed in 2014 using aerial sample counts (including block counts in hilly areas) as part of the Great Elephant Census.
The estimate from the Lower Zambezi Valley in 2014 was 11,656 ± 2,259 (Dunham et al., 2015c). The previous comparable estimate was 19,297 ± 2,527 in 2001 (Mackie, 2002). The 2014 figure replaces an estimate from the AESR 2007 of 19,981 ± 2,392 from 2003 (Dunham, 2004). This survey was less comparable than the 2001 one because it covered a slightly smaller area. There was an approximately 40% decline in the 13 years between 2001 and 2014. The observed carcass ratio of 6% is not as high as one would expect given the rate of population reduction and might suggest that the level of poaching has reduced in recent years. The corridor between the Mavuradonha Wilderness Area and the rest of the Zambezi Valley range has been changed to possible range (Packenham quoting Varden, pers. comm., 2016).
The 2014 estimate for Sebungwe was 3,407 ± 1,215 (Dunham et al., 2015b) which replaces an estimate of 15,024 ± 2,133 from a 2006 survey (Dunham et al., 2006a). The observed carcass ratio of 30% indicates an unsustainably high offtake of elephants. There were almost no elephants left in the communal areas, with the main surviving sub-populations in Matusadona and Chizarira National Parks and the Chirisa Safari Area. Wildlife scouts reported 70-100 elephants in Kavira Forest Land at the western end of Sebungwe (M. Sebele pers. comm. in Dunham et al., 2015b).
The 2014 estimate for North-west Matabeleland was 53,991 ± 7,711 (Dunham et al., 2015a), which replaces an estimate of 49,310 ± 7,051 from 2001 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002). There was no significant difference between the totals although the increased carcass ratio of 7% from 3% in 2001 is a worrying sign. Other aerial sample counts were carried out in 2006 and 2007 but they were not suitable for comparative purposes (Dunham et al., 2007; Dunham et al., 2006b). Since the 2014 Botswana survey was carried out a month earlier than the north-west Matabeleland survey there is a possibility of double-counting or missing animals that had moved from Hwange into Botswana. There was a surprisingly large number of elephants seen in the Ngwasho/Sepako stratum in Botswana adjoining the southern half of Hwange NP (estimate 11,744) (Chase et al., 2015) and evidence from radio-tracking shows that elephants do move out of Hwange into adjoining areas of Botswana (Chamaillé-Jammes, pers. comm., 2016; Ferguson & Chase, 2010)
Elephant range in North-west Matabeleland has probably increased. Water hole counts and scout reports indicated 308 elephants in the Fuller Forest Land, 165 in Gwaai, Bembezi and Umguza Forest Lands (which has been marked as new known range) and 150 in Gwampa/Lake Alice Forest Reserves (M. Sebele pers. comm in Dunham et al., 2015a) which are all recorded as new populations. I. Du Preez (pers. comm. in Dunham et al., 2015a) reported an informed guess of 36 elephants in the privately owned Stanley & Livingstone Game Reserve (Nakavango).
The estimate for Gonarezhou NP from the 2014 survey was 11,120 ± 2,709 (Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015). This replaces an estimate of 4,987 ± 1,577 from a comparable 2001 survey. Another survey in 2009 gave an estimate of 9,123 ± 1,898 (Dunham et al., 2010). The elephant population of Gonarezhou NP is continuing to increase, and is at its highest level since surveys started in 1980. There was a relatively low carcass ratio of 4%. There are limited movements of elephants from Gonarezhou into adjoining parts of Mozambique, and one radio-collared elephant moved from Kruger to Gonarezhou (Henley, 2011).
The 2014 survey of the south east Lowveld included some neighbouring areas. No elephants were observed in the Malapati Safari Area immediately south-west of Gonarezhou but there was an estimate of 332 ± 519 in the Mahenye communal land to the north-east of Gonarezhou, which replaces a zero estimate from the 2001 survey. The 2014 survey gave an estimate of 1,585 ± 1,295 for the Savé Valley Conservancy. This replaces an estimate of 527 ± 310 (Dunham, 2003). There is no statistical difference between the two results. Aerial total counts were carried out in 2013 and 2015 (Jooste & Lenton, 2015; Joubert & Joubert, 2013), which did not cover the entire area: 1,538 and 1,490 elephants were counted respectively. Sengwe, further to the south-west, adjoining the northern boundary of Kruger National Park in South Africa, was not counted in the 2014 survey, but there was an estimate of 35 ± 99 in 2013 (Dunham et al., 2013). In the Malilangwe Conservancy 272 elephants were counted using a helicopter in 2013 (Clegg, 2013). This replaces an estimate of 116 from an aerial total count in 2001 (Dunham, 2002). There was an estimate of 55 in 2014 for the Chiredzi River Conservancy (Warth in Dunham & van der Westhuizen, 2015) compared to 28 in 2001 (Dunham, 2002). Although Chipinge Safari Area is marked as possible elephant range, this is now highly unlikely.
There are a number of small isolated populations in other parts of Zimbabwe, which have updated estimates for 2014. There is an informed guess of 150 elephants for Chegutu Safari Area (Mwale, pers. comm. in Dunham, 2015), formerly Hartley Safari Area, west of Harare and this replaces a guess of 100 from 2001 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002). Some 30 elephants reportedly move from the Nyatana Wildlife Management Area in the north east of the country into Mozambique and this replaces a guess of 150 from 2001 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002).
Some 20 bull elephants were photographed, and there was a further unverified report of 40 elephants, near Mangwe Dam in the vicinity of Home Farm and Greystone Ranches, across the border from Francistown in Botswana (Robertson and Winch, pers. comm. in Dunham, 2015) replacing a guess of three from 2002 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002). A helicopter total count enumerated 174 elephants on Shangani Ranch near Bulawayo (Edwards, pers. comm. in Dunham, 2015) and this replaces a guess of 60 from 2001 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002).
There was a total aerial count of 212 elephants in 2014 in the Zimbabwe section of the Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area which includes Tuli Safari Area, Sentinel, Nottingham and River Ranches (Selier & Page, 2015). This replaces an estimate of 82 from 2001 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002).
There were informed guesses in 2014 of 500-600 in Bubye Valley (Leathem & English pers. comm. in Dunham, 2015), and 100 on Bubiana Conservancy (Drummond pers. comm. in Dunham, 2015) in the south of Zimbabwe, replacing guesses of 53 and 50 respectively (Dunham & Mackie, 2002). An old estimate of ten elephants in the Mambali Communal Lands on the Botswana border has been retained from the AESR 2007 (Dunham & Mackie, 2002). A report of 54 elephants on Nuanetsi Ranch is recorded as a new population.